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Bud Brewster
Galactic Fleet Admiral (site admin)
Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 17637
Location: North Carolina
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 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:45 am Post subject: |
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In the interest of contributing to the serious aspect of this fine thread, I'd like to refer the members to my previous thread on the subject.
Why I DON'T want us to go to Mars
And the thread below also contains a spirited debate. My views are presented in great detail. With nice pictures, too. Serious ones! 
THE MAN WHO BOUGHT MARS
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Is there no man on Earth who has the wisdom and innocence of a child?
~ The Space Children (1958) |
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Custer
Space Sector Commander
Joined: 22 Aug 2015
Posts: 929
Location: Earth
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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It may not have been a well-received movie, but I do have a quiet liking for some aspects of The Adventures of Pluto Nash... and we do get a "properly" developed moon colony there. A moon colony is a great start, but it is just a start. There are an awful lot of strange, new worlds out there, right?
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Gord Green
Galactic Ambassador
Joined: 06 Oct 2014
Posts: 3001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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With all respect to Bud, you make good logical arguments, but the one thing that is lacking right now is a VISION.
It was the enthusiasm instilled during the Kennedy administration and amplified by starry eyed school kids (like us!) that kept the program going as long as it did. If it wasn't for the sidetracking of the Viet Nam war that enthusiasm could have endured.
Mars is not the final destination; a return to the Moon and deep space outposts and mining of asteroids are all on the table, but first we need to revitalize the dream of the stars, "Le reve ettollie". |
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Bud Brewster
Galactic Fleet Admiral (site admin)
Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 17637
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Custer wrote: | | A moon colony is a great start, but it is just a start. There are an awful lot of strange, new worlds out there, right? |
My point exactly. And I contend that a Moon colony is a better way to develop the technology to establish habitats on alien worlds. Being so much closer than Mars, a lunar colony can be maintained and expanded much less expensively than one on the Red Planet.
And a small colony on a planet 34,000,000 miles away (at it's closest point) will NOT inspire people. It doesn't even inspire me! It's just a lame attempt to repeat the Moon landing on another planet. People will just thing, "Hell, been there — down that."
It is, as I've said, a useless and expensive endeavor. How is that going to inspire anybody?
But a thriving, growing community on our own moon — visible in the sky as a constant reminder of a bold endeavor by the human race — would offer opportunities for our best and brightest people to actually go there to live and work!
This would be far more inspirational to mankind than a desperate little group of people who need billions of tax dollars just to stay alive on a hostile world!
But a lunar colony would be building on the glorious achievements of the Mercury and Apollo programs while it continued the vision which inspired us in the 1960s!
Also, consider this. A growing Moon colony with a large, self-sufficient population would be able to insure the survival of the human race if a large asteroid wiped out life on Earth!
A Mars colony would die out in a few years at best if the Earth suffered such a catastrophe.
Isn't that important? It damn well should be!
I'm afraid that all you staunch advocates of Mars colonies are letting your childhood dreams of the Red Planet blind you to the sad fact that it's just a barren and distant world which isn't worth the expense or the risk to visit with manned missions . . . much less establish colonies on! 
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Is there no man on Earth who has the wisdom and innocence of a child?
~ The Space Children (1958)
Last edited by Bud Brewster on Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:05 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Gord Green
Galactic Ambassador
Joined: 06 Oct 2014
Posts: 3001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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| Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | it's just a barren and distant world which isn't worth the expense or the risk to visit with manned missions . . . much less establish colonies on! |
Well.....that's not quite so.
The Martian atmosphere is mainly co2 from which the o2 can be extracted to breath. Also, the presence of water also gives access to breathing oxygen as well as drinking water. The hydrogen extracted from the water can be combined with the CO2 to make rocket fuel.
There is NOTHING on the Moon to compare. Lunar regalith is totally unsuitable to grow any kind of crops to sustain a colony. Everything would have to be imported. The lack of any atmosphere on the Moon makes it totally exposed to radiation and the complete vacuum makes it necessary for bulky spacesuits.
My point, actually, is not what is better from a completely scientific point of view, but from the point of allowing the human spirit to soar!
I would like to see a concerted, logical, planned program that makes space exploration a real thing, not just a "trick". Go back to the Moon and stay there; establish a permanent laboratory there.
Don't go to Mars until a real program is established to do it as safely and economical as possible (See Andy Weir's THE MARTIAN for a template!).
Establish deep space habitats in Lunar orbit and at LaGrange points. Build a new, permanent space station and utilize new propulsion techniques to make it more cost effective. Open up the private sector to allow it to be rewarded by rights to Lunar and asteroid mining.
In short, make the space frontier the new frontier!
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Gord Green
Galactic Ambassador
Joined: 06 Oct 2014
Posts: 3001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:35 am Post subject: |
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The new spacesuit for the Boeing Starliner.
Now THIS looks like a spacesuit! |
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Bud Brewster
Galactic Fleet Admiral (site admin)
Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 17637
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:08 am Post subject: |
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| Gord Green wrote: | My point, actually, is not what is better from a completely scientific point of view, but from the point of allowing the human spirit to soar!
I would like to see a concerted, logical, planned program that makes space exploration a real thing, not just a "trick". Go back to the Moon and stay there; establish a permanent laboratory there.
Don't go to Mars until a real program is established to do it as safely and economical as possible (See Andy Weir's THE MARTIAN for a template!).
Establish deep space habitats in Lunar orbit and at LaGrange points. Build a new, permanent space station and utilize new propulsion techniques to make it more cost effective. Open up the private sector to allow it to be rewarded by rights to Lunar and asteroid mining.
In short, make the space frontier the new frontier!
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That's a plan I completely agree with. My assertion all along has been that Mars is not the best destination to spend billions of dollars on when a Moon colony (and the other projects you described) would be much more effective at inspiring mankind and encouraging technological advancement.
As you said, we'll get around to Mars when the time is right.
And yes, those spacesuits are awesome!
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Is there no man on Earth who has the wisdom and innocence of a child?
~ The Space Children (1958)
Last edited by Bud Brewster on Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:58 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Custer
Space Sector Commander
Joined: 22 Aug 2015
Posts: 929
Location: Earth
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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| First we need that thriving, vibrant Lunar economy, and then we can think about Mars, which has to be our best bet in our friendly neighbourhood solar system for taming and colonising a whole new planet. Venus is just too hot and violent, and while the moons of Jupiter are definitely worth exploring, they are a long way from the Sun. We just need to get the old Barsoomian atmosphere engines working again, er, I mean, try to get some oxygen into the atmosphere, and maybe bring in some handy ice from the asteroid belt, and the terraforming can begin. Great practice for when we can head out from System Sol in earnest, in search of those Earth-like worlds that astronomers have discovered orbiting other suns. |
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Brent Gair
Mission Specialist
Joined: 21 Nov 2014
Posts: 466
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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One thought to throw into the mix.
Lunar gravity is so low that body muscle and systems would dangerously atrophy over a very short period of time and irreversilbe bone loss would occur. Yeah, it's closer than Mars but it's extremely inhospitable.
Now, the same can be said of Mars but to a much lesser degree. Mars also has much lower gravity than Earth but it has substantially more than the moon. Resistance excercises (employed on the ISS and the subject of much research) could significantly mitigate damage to the body.
I think members of a moon colony would be in pretty bad shape after a few years...likely to the point that returning to Earth's gravity could prove fatal. If I was chosen to for a "5 year shift" off Earth, I'd pick Mars rather than the moon. |
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Bud Brewster
Galactic Fleet Admiral (site admin)
Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 17637
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Custer wrote: | | First we need that thriving, vibrant Lunar economy, and then we can think about Mars . . . We just need to get the old Barsoomian atmosphere engines working again, er, I mean, try to get some oxygen into the atmosphere, and maybe bring in some handy ice from the asteroid belt, and the terraforming can begin. |
I completely concur with your very sensible timeline, Dr. Custer!
My stated objections to the distinguished Prof. Gair's ambitious suggestions that we rush off to Mars and set up housekeeping to inspire the support of the general public for the space program were based on my feelings that it would be like a family moving into their new house . . . while it was still under construction! 
Even with Brent's very real concerns about the gravitational difference between the Moon and Mars, it's still much easier to bring colonist back to Earth periodically (a three day journey) than back from Mars (a one year journey).
And of course, a hi-tech lunar colony could have gymnasiums with large rotating facilities which provided Earth-normal gravity the colonists, visitors, and tourists could visit regularly.
Is that something a struggling Martian colony could provide? No. I doubt it . . .
The sensible thing to do would be to wait until Mars had been sufficiently terraformed to actually need farmers and settlers — not astronauts in bulky spacesuits!
How long would that take? Estimates range from 1,000 years to 100,000 years. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to hope that a rapid advance in our technology might shorten that process dramatically.
After all, when I was kid in the 1960s, I watched War of the Worlds on a 25" b&w television whenever a local TV station aired it. But now I can watch the Blu-ray of it on a large HD TV anytime I want! And I can post a message about this movie on the message board I created myself, using my own laptop computer . . . and have it read by anybody in world!
As I've stated repeatedly, I don't have the slightest interest in Mars until we can turn it into a place we can treat like a home, and not like a hostile environment. After all, what's the difference between a colony on Mars — which requires the residents to be completely sealed off from the deadly planet around them — and a lunar colony which requires the same thing?
Granted that Mars has raw materials which can be converted into a breathable atmosphere and usable rocket fuel — at tremendous expense and effort. But is that really easier than having these materials brought from Earth to a thriving, prosperous lunar colony that's 142 times closer to Earth than Mars
I don't think so.
Also bear in mind that Mars is not much better than the Moon at shielding it's colonists from cosmic rays! The Earth's magnetic field does most of that, not its atmosphere! So, Martian colonist don't get a large advantage from the atmosphere . . . they just get frequent dust storms which make all the exposed structures and equipment dirty as hell!
Meanwhile, the construction of lunar colonies at the North and South poles of the moon is actually much easier than building giant orbiting space stations that have to rotate to provide artificial gravity, while they risk being punctured by meteoroids and orbiting space junk . . . or being shot down by terrorists with guided missiles!
And don't forget that large lunar colonies can preserve humanity if a giant asteroid destroys all life on Earth.
So, lunar colonies on the surface (or even underground) might be the salvation of mankind if a cosmic disaster wipes us out!
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Is there no man on Earth who has the wisdom and innocence of a child?
~ The Space Children (1958)
Last edited by Bud Brewster on Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:03 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Brent Gair
Mission Specialist
Joined: 21 Nov 2014
Posts: 466
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Bud Brewster wrote: | Granted that Mars has raw materials which can be converted into a breathable atmosphere and usable rocket fuel — at tremendous expense and effort. But is that really easier than having these materials brought from Earth to a thriving, prosperous lunar colony that's 142 times closer to Earth than Mars
I don't think so. |
I do think so.
Robert Zubrin made this a major cornerstone of his book THE CASE FOR MARS (damned if I can find my copy...I know it's here somewhere).
He has laid out a logical and safe plan for the automated production of rocket fuel (and more) using the Martian atmosphere.
In his plan, rocket fuel for return to earth can be produced by an automated plant before astronauts even arrive on Mars. An earth return vehicle would land before astronauts arrive. It would carry 8 tonnes of liquid hydrogen "seed" material. Through a variety of electrochemical processes, this would yield 108 tonnes of bipropellant for the return vehicle.
He also points out that oxygen can be drawn from the Martian atmosphere for two significant benefits. One, obviously, is breathing oxygen. Another benefit is the production of water. Since water is 89% oxygen by weight, a relatively small amount of liquid hydrogen from Earth can be made to yield a lot of water.
The Martian atmosphere is a HUGE resource that can't be discounted.
The fact that the moon is 142 times closer is of minimal benefit. The VAST majority of the heavy lifting involves burning propellant to escape the Earth's atmosphere and gravity. Once out of Earth's gravity, the trip to either planet is basically "coasting". Yeah, it takes more TIME to get to Mars but not a lot more in terms of physical resources. It's not like two trucks driving down the highway where one must burn fuel for a journey 142 times longer than the other truck.
While an automated Martian factory is making fuel, oxygen and water, the "moon boys" would be launching Saturn V size rockets to carry those things to the moon.
So, no, I don't think that's easier than a Martian settlement. |
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Bud Brewster
Galactic Fleet Admiral (site admin)
Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 17637
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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Forgive me, Brent, but you're not thinking "long term" for both colonies.
A Moon base turns into a Moon settlement, which turns into a Moon colony, which turns into a Moon city.
Propulsion systems will improve until regular trips back and forth become routine. And that 142-times-closer element you dismiss means that people can come and go in a matter of days.
Not years.
But a Martian base just stays a Martian base, and the people who go there have to commit three years of their lives just for a one year visit! The fact that they can use Martian resources to survive and make the fuel to get back home really doesn't impress me very much.
Other than those advantages . . . why should we go there in the first place? Are we doing all this just so we can have a colony on another world? That's the only reason? Seriously?
If that's really the only reason, a Moon colony gives scientists and even tourist a chance to live and work in space without the long trip time.
Brent, that's the biggest difference between your idea of a colony and my own. You want something that would be confined to a small group of people. Your idea of an inspirational space mission is just another short-term stunt, like the Apollo missions.
I want something that grows larger each year until it's a well-populated colony that almost anybody on earth could visit!
But don't just take my word for it. Click on the picture and find out a lot more.
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Is there no man on Earth who has the wisdom and innocence of a child?
~ The Space Children (1958) |
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